Spatiotemporal dynamics, trends, predictions of land use and land cover changes in Texas High Plains

Abstract Anthropogenic land use and land cover (LULC) changes have far-reaching impacts threatening biodiversity and ecosystems. Addressing these environmental challenges and promoting sustainable development requires comprehensive understanding of these LULC change processes. The aim of this study was to assess spatiotemporal LULC changes in Texas High Plains (THP) region which has seen significant changes from anthropogenic activities. We used the Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen approach to detect monotonic trends in LULC classes over a two-decade period (2001 to 2021). We further explored these trends using innovative trend analysis (ITA). Subsequently, we forecasted future LULC changes for 2031 and 2041 using cellular automata artificial neural network (CA-ANN) model which was validated using data from 2021 where the model performed well with an overall accuracy of 95.1% showing strong agreement between the predicted and reference data. The predominant land use in the Texas High Plains region consists of cultivated crops (58.0%), herbaceous (16.9%), and shrub/scrub (16.7%), followed by developed areas (5.6%). Trend analysis based on MK and Sen’s slope revealed highly significant increasing trend (p < 0.01) in the developed (8.3 km 2 year −1 ), forest (1.3 km 2 year −1 ), and shrub/scrub (61.1 km 2 year −1 ) LULC classes. Similarly, a significant decreasing trend was seen in herbaceous (−59.2 km 2 year −1 at p < 0.01) and wetlands (−1.62 km 2 year −1 at p < 0.05), while rest showed no significant changes. The results of the ITA confirmed the results of classical trend analysis and highlighted some further trends in LULC classes with significant increasing trend in cultivated crop area and a decreasing trend in hay/pasture. The CA-ANN model projections indicate that significant land use changes will occur in the future. Cultivated crop area is projected to expand further in future, growth of developed areas is expected to continue and leading to a reduction in barren land and herbaceous class. Hay/pasture and forest areas will subsequently decline, while shrub/scrub, wetland, and open water LULC classes are anticipated to not see any huge changes. Findings suggest that the main drivers of LULC changes are the expansion of developed areas and cultivated crop area. Better understanding of these LULC changes will help in formulation of land use plans, adaptation to climate change impacts, and delineating the conservation areas.