Sparse Variational Gaussian Processes model for prediction energy parameters in solar power plant and wind farm

This study applies Sparse Variational Gaussian Processes (SVGP) for probabilistic forecasting of energy output from a solar plant and a wind farm with eight turbines.Trained on two years of hourly SCADA data, the SVGP model-combining a neural mean function and kernel-based covariance-produces accurate forecasts with confidence intervals over 24-120 hour horizons.Results confirm its scalability and precision thanks to evaluation metrics such as MAE, RMSE, CRPS, and R 2 across renewable energy types.

Authors

Institutions

Publication Details

Published
2025-09-21
DOI
https://doi.org/10.51408/csit2025_63
Primary Topic
Energy Load and Power Forecasting
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
article

Sparse Variational Gaussian Processes model for prediction energy parameters in solar power plant and wind farm

К. Б. Кошелев, Sergei Strijhak, И.В. Стулов
Energy Load and Power Forecasting
article

Sparse Variational Gaussian Processes model for prediction energy parameters in solar power plant and wind farm

К. Б. Кошелев, Sergei Strijhak, И.В. Стулов
article en

Abstract

This study applies Sparse Variational Gaussian Processes (SVGP) for probabilistic forecasting of energy output from a solar plant and a wind farm with eight turbines.Trained on two years of hourly SCADA data, the SVGP model-combining a neural mean function and kernel-based covariance-produces accurate forecasts with confidence intervals over 24-120 hour horizons.Results confirm its scalability and precision thanks to evaluation metrics such as MAE, RMSE, CRPS, and R 2 across renewable energy types.

Institute of Social and Economic Studies of Population (RU)
Openalex Percentile: Top 74%
Energy Load and Power Forecasting
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.