Assessing Italy’s Severino Law: impacts on corruption control and inequality

Abstract The evaluation of public policies is an increasingly important issue that demands greater attention. This study examines the impact of the Severino Law (2012) on corruption control and inequality in Italy. Using a robust quantitative approach for the period 2002–2022, we apply difference-in-differences (DiD), the synthetic control method (SCM), and a multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) model. Our findings indicate that while the law significantly improved corruption control—albeit with a delayed effect—it did not reduce inequality as anticipated, which instead continued to rise. This outcome stands in contrast to the predictions of much of the empirical literature. The results suggest that the direct effects of corruption control on inequality can be highly idiosyncratic and do not operate in a linear or isolated manner. Rather, they depend on the extent to which corrupt behaviors are reduced and on the presence of complementary policies beyond anti-corruption reforms to effectively address structural inequality.