Spatiotemporal Distribution Characteristics of Soil Organic Carbon and Its Influencing Factors in the Loess Plateau

Soil organic carbon (SOC) constitutes the largest terrestrial carbon pool and plays a crucial role in climate regulation, soil fertility, and ecosystem functioning. Understanding its spatiotemporal dynamics is particularly important in semi-arid regions, where fragile environments and extensive ecological restoration may alter carbon cycling. The Loess Plateau, the world’s largest loess accumulation area with a history of severe erosion and large-scale vegetation restoration, provides a natural laboratory for examining how environmental gradients influence SOC storage over time. This study used a random forest model with multi-source environmental data to quantify soil organic carbon density (SOCD) dynamics in the 0–100 cm soil layer of the Loess Plateau from 2005 to 2020. SOCD showed strong spatial heterogeneity, decreasing from the humid southeast to the arid northwest. Over the 15-year period, total SOC storage increased from 4.84 to 5.23 Pg C (a 7.9% rise), while the annual sequestration rate declined from 0.046 to 0.020 kg·m−2·yr−1, indicating that the regional carbon sink may be approaching saturation after two decades of restoration. Among soil types, Cambisols were the largest carbon pool, accounting for over 44% of total SOC storage. Vegetation productivity emerged as the dominant driver of SOC variability, with clay content as a secondary factor. These results indicate that although ecological restoration has substantially enhanced SOC storage, its marginal benefits are diminishing. Understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of SOC and their environmental drivers provides essential insights for evaluating long-term carbon sequestration potential and informing future land management strategies. Broader generalization requires multi-regional comparisons, long-term monitoring, and deeper soil investigations to capture ecosystem-scale carbon dynamics fully.