The precarity trap: modelling longitudinal trajectories of youth employment precarity and associations with mental health in the Australian HILDA Survey

The current study aimed to identify longitudinal trajectories of precarious employment during emerging adulthood (18-24 years) and examine associations with short- and long-term mental health among Australians. Group-based trajectory modelling and adjusted linear/binary regression were applied to panel data from the nationally representative Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey. The analytic sample (n=499; person-year observations=5,887) included Australian residents employed from 2001 to 2008 between ages 18-24, with subsequent measures of mental health taken at 25 and 35 years. Informed by a youth advisory group, employment precarity was measured using composite scores derived from subjective survey items assessing perceived job security and job control, and mental health was assessed using the self-reported Mental Health Inventory-Five Item (MHI-5). Two distinct trajectories of precarious employment were identified: persistent high precarity, and low and decreasing precarity. Individuals in both persistent high precarity trajectories had significantly poorer mental health at age 25, whereas by age 35, poorer mental health was observed only for persistent job insecurity. Associations between precarious employment and mental health also differed by sex, varying across job control and job security dimensions. These findings suggest that chronically high employment precarity during emerging adulthood is associated with poorer short- and long-term mental health, while transitioning into more stable and secure employment during this developmental period may be protective. Policymakers and employers can help to safeguard the current and future mental health of young Australians by improving job security, stability and autonomy, as well as expanding access to mental health supports.