Impact of Situational Variables on Goal-Scoring Offensive Sequences in the 2022 FIFA World Cup

Research in match performance analysis has progressed markedly, yet detailed studies on technical-tactical indicators, notably those addressing multiple situational variables, remain sparse. To narrow this literature gap, this study aimed to examine the impact of four situational variables (competition stage, match period, match status, and team quality) on key performance indicators (KPIs) in goal-scoring sequences during the 2022 FIFA World Cup. All 168 goal-scoring sequences from regular time were evaluated post-event using the Offensive Sequences Characterisation System, which included simple and composite indicators. Another three categorical variables (ball recovery type, ball recovery location, and team possession type) were also coded. To evaluate the effects of situational variables, Mann-Whitney U and Kruskal-Wallis tests were applied to KPIs, whilst Chi-square and Multinomial Logistic Regression were conducted for categorical variables. The analysis revealed that while competition stage, match period, and match status did not significantly affect KPIs related to build-up and progression, they noticeably influenced defensive-to-offensive transitions, particularly during mid-game (31-60 min) and when teams were losing. In such scenarios, teams regained possession higher up the pitch, employing more aggressive defensive strategies. Team quality emerged as the most decisive factor, with better-ranked teams displaying longer, more structured attacks and faster ball interventions to score. The findings suggest that success in elite soccer is driven not only by team quality, but also by adaptability to match-specific conditions. Integrating these situational factors into both training and match preparation is vital to developing a team's adaptability to the ever-evolving contextual dynamics of elite soccer.