Analysis of the Impact of GNI and Trade Dependency on Food Self-sufficiency and Crop Self-sufficiency Rates in South Korea

This study empirically investigates the effects of gross national income (GNI) and trade openness on Korea's food and crop self-sufficiency rates using time series data spanning the period from 1970 to 2022. To account for potential structural heterogeneity across different crop types, both linear and nonlinear regression models are employed. The results from the nonlinear specifications suggest that increases in income and trade openness generally exert a negative influence on self-sufficiency rates, although the magnitude and direction of the effects vary across crops. Notably, wheat demonstrates the highest sensitivity to changes in GNI and trade dependence, as revealed through sensitivity analyses. The observed decline in self-sufficiency in response to rising income reflects structural shifts in Korea's agricultural production and consumption patterns. These findings highlight the pressing need for policy interventions aimed at sustaining and enhancing national food self-sufficiency amid continued economic growth and deepening globalization.