Synthetic oil production: Process design, techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment

• Synthetic oil production routes via coal, natural gas, and biomass are compared. • MSP for synthetic oil from coal, natural gas, biomass $1,088.9, $1,413.4, $1,437.7/ton. • GWP per kg synthetic oil from coal, natural gas, biomass 9.75, 12.30, -2.79 kg CO 2 eq. • The investment risk of the three routes is studied via Monte Carlo simulations. • The potential of replacing fossil fuels with biomass to produce synthetic oils is discussed. The transition from fossil fuels to renewable resources in synthetic oil production is a critical step towards mitigating environmental impacts and achieving sustainability goals. In this study, we investigate the feasibility of replacing fossil fuels with biomass in the production of synthetic oils through a comprehensive analysis encompassing conceptual process design, techno-economic analysis, and life cycle assessment. We examine three primary routes for producing synthetic oil: natural gas to liquid (GTL), coal to liquid (CTL), and biomass to liquid (BTL). Techno-economic analysis results reveal that the CTL process has the best economic performance with a minimum selling price of synthetic oil at $1,088.9/t, followed by the GTL process at $1,413.4/t, and the BTL process at $1,437.7/t. Life cycle assessment results underscore the environmental advantages of the BTL process, particularly its efficacy in reducing greenhouse gas emissions (-2.79 kg CO 2 equiv./kg synthetic oil). In contrast, the CTL and GTL processes produce 1 kg of synthetic oil with emissions of 9.75 and 12.30 kg CO 2 equivalent, respectively. The environmental benefits of the BTL process highlight its potential for replacing GTL and CTL. In addition, the analysis found that when the prices of coal and natural gas fluctuate by 50%, and the price of wood chips is 57.95% (-8.55% to +25.66%) and 65.43% (-0.61% to 1.82%) lower than that of coal and natural gas, respectively, the BTL process has the potential to economically outperform CTL and GTL, particularly with the implementation of active policies related to non-renewable energy use and carbon emissions ( e.g. , carbon taxes, renewable energy incentives).