Does innovation drive emission cuts? Evidence from China and the UK under SDG 13

• Innovation in China links to higher CO₂, defying climate action goals. • UK emissions fell despite little change in innovation levels. • Innovation alone does not fully explain CO₂ emission trends. • Climate policies had no clear effect on innovation-emission links. • Aligning innovation with national goals is key for climate action. The assumption that innovation inherently supports climate goals is central to policy and academic discourse, yet its actual impact on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions remains contested. This study investigates the relationship between national innovation levels and CO₂ emissions in China and the United Kingdom—two major emitters with differing developmental trajectories—to evaluate whether innovation supports climate action in line with Sustainable Development Goal 13 (SDG 13). Using annual data from 2007 to 2022, we employ a panel regression base model with fixed effects to assess the direct influence of the Global Innovation Index (GII) on per capita CO₂ emissions. To ensure robustness, an interaction model incorporating the Climate Policy Index (CPI), part of the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) is used to test for moderating effects of climate policy on the innovation-emissions nexus. Findings reveal a positive correlation between innovation and emissions in China, indicating that innovation has not translated into sustainability gains. In contrast, the UK shows a decline in emissions despite stagnating innovation levels, suggesting alternative drivers of emission reductions. The robustness model finds no significant moderating role of climate policies in either case, exposing a gap between policy design and implementation. Policy implications are clear: China must align its innovation strategy with green technology adoption, while the UK should bolster innovation to maintain long-term emission reductions. Both nations require more integrated, enforceable climate policies linked explicitly to innovation outputs.