Predicting Suitable Built-up Areas in Indonesia’s New Capital: Integrating Ecosystems, Access, and Socioeconomics

Indonesia's new capital city is a strategy to promote equitable development across the country. However, the current location is predominantly forested. Planning new built-up areas in this forest region could lead to significant ecosystem damage, both locally and globally. Therefore, careful planning is essential for developing new built-up areas in the future. This study aims to identify suitable locations for future built-up areas using ecosystem service indices and socio-economic activities as key parameters. This approach aims to balance economic activities while maintaining environmental ecosystem sustainability, with temporal variations analyzed at four-year intervals from 2024 to 2040. The study results show that built-up area development is concentrated around Balikpapan and Samarinda, with very high suitability percentages of 44.4 % and 38.8 % of the total area, respectively. This research aims to ensure that the development around Indonesia's new capital city preserves the environmental ecosystem while being economically robust. • Indonesia's new capital city strategy. • Predicting Suitable Areas for Future Built-up Development. • This research balances urban development with environmental protection.