Major risks for institutions of professional pre-tertiary education in the context of vocational education reform in Ukraine

The article analyzes the key risks facing institutions of professional pre-tertiary education (PPTE) in the context of educational reform in Ukraine and the implementation of the Law of Ukraine “On Vocational Education.” The relevance of the study is driven by labor market demands, demographic changes, the consequences of war, and European integration processes. Under wartime conditions, the functioning of the educational system is further complicated by the destruction of infrastructure, internal and external migration of students and teachers, budget cuts, and the urgent need to prepare specialists for the recovery of the economy and social sector. The article identifies and analyzes the main risks that arise for PPTE institutions in the process of implementing educational reforms, as well as determining possible consequences for the education system as a whole. The study employs systemic and comparative approaches, analysis of Ukraine’s legal framework, and an examination of international experience (Germany, Poland, and the Baltic States). The findings reveal six major groups of risks: institutional uncertainty (the threat of PPTE being merged with vocational education), optimization and consolidation of the institutional network (closure of small colleges and reduced regional access to education), separation of colleges from universities (loss of integration with science and higher education), financial dependence on local budgets, socio-legal uncertainty regarding student status, and the weakening of the educational vertical “school – college – university.” Particular attention is given to the impact of the war, which exacerbates the vulnerability of PPTE through demographic shifts, evacuation of institutions, declining student cohorts, and growing demand for new programs aimed at national recovery. The study concludes that legislative delineation of responsibilities between vocational and pre-tertiary education, ensuring financial autonomy of colleges, maintaining their integration within the higher education system, and adapting educational programs to post-war modernization are essential. Leveraging positive international experience will enhance the resilience and competitiveness of Ukraine’s PPTE system.