Carbon Emission Prediction and Carbon Compliance Plan Recommendations for Hebei Province's Iron and Steel Industry under the Expansion of the National Carbon Market

Under the background of the national carbon market expansion, this paper addresses the challenges posed by the large scale of Hebei Province's iron and steel industry and the inadequacy of traditional prediction models to meet practical demands. Based on the emission factor method, this paper calculates the carbon emissions of the iron and steel industry in Hebei Province from 2000 to 2021 and establishes a carbon emission prediction model for the industry by applying a genetic algorithm (GA) optimized BP neural network based on six influencing factors of carbon emissions. The model is used to simulate and predict carbon emissions of Hebei Province from 2022 to 2030, along with an analysis of carbon compliance plans for Hebei Province's iron and steel industry entering the national carbon market. The results indicate that carbon emissions will continue to rise, reaching a phased peak of 369.3361 million tons in 2026, followed by a slow growth trend. This paper aims to provide theoretical support for government decision-making and to facilitate the integration of Hebei Province's iron and steel industry into the national carbon market.