Research on disaster chain evolution prediction method of new urban power system

The new urban power system is the key carrier to achieve the goal of double carbon, but the frequent occurrence of extreme weather poses a serious challenge to its safe and stable operation. In this paper, a risk assessment method based on multi-model fusion is proposed for the evolution of disaster chain of urban new power system under extreme weather. Through the traditional power generation model, wind power generation model and photovoltaic power generation model, the system risk is quantified, and the weight of load shedding risk, abandoned wind and solar risk and line power limit risk is determined by combining the analytic hierarchy process (0.17,0.17,0.66). It is found that when the number of sampling times exceeds 3000, the comprehensive risk value of the system tends to be stable. In the wind power model, the location parameters and scale parameters significantly affect the risk distribution, while the shape parameters have less influence. In the photovoltaic model, the increase of the maximum value of the hourly clear sky index will cause the system to shift from short supply to oversupply, causing the line to exceed the limit and the risk of abandoning wind and light to rise. The research conclusions provide theoretical support and quantitative tools for disaster chain evolution prediction and risk prevention and control of urban new power system under extreme weather.