Impact of Critical Scenarios of Sudden Water Pollution on Emergency Response Decision-Making from a Complexity Theory Perspective

Sudden water pollution events, characterized by an abrupt onset and high uncertainty, result in the instantaneous discharge of harmful pollutants, severely disrupting ecological balance, socioeconomic development, and human health. To address information asymmetry and quantitatively describe scenario information for such events, this study defines the connotation of critical scenarios and evaluates their complexity using entropy from a complexity theory perspective. By analyzing the influence mechanism of scenario entropy values in critical scenario sequences on emergency response decision-making, the research provides insights and recommendations for decision-making during water pollution emergencies. Case studies validate changes in entropy during pollution events, identifying critical scenarios through abrupt entropy shifts and inflection points. These critical scenarios significantly impact the urgency of emergency decisions, evacuation strategies, resource prioritization, monitoring protocols, post-disaster recovery, and long-term surveillance.