Modeling Wildfire Risk Using GIS-Integrated Analytical Hierarchy Process Method: A Case Study of Zouagha Forest (Northeastern Algeria)

The growing demand for land increases the risk of forest fire, threatening ecosystems and human health. This study integrates Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to assess natural phenomena through fire susceptibility mapping in the Zouagha Forest, northeastern Algeria. This forest area, vital both environmentally and economically, frequently faced fires. In this study, factors that affect fire risk and spread included slope, aspect, Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), altitude, distance from roads, urban areas, and water resources, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), and flammability of species. The analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to determine the significance of these various factors, and it was found that anthropogenic factors (proximity to roads and urban areas) were the most important. Fire map results indicated that 61.71% of the forest area was at high and very high risk, with 9.18% specifically at very high risk of fire. The accuracy of the map was validated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve method, achieving an 81% accuracy rate. Historical wildfire ignition points confirmed the model’s reliability, with over 83% located in high- or very high-risk areas. This model will undoubtedly assist local decision-makers and firefighters in implementing preventive measures and taking necessary precautions to reduce the damage caused by fires in this region.