Multi-Scenario Land Use Simulation and Cost Assessment of Ecological Corridor Construction in Nanchang City

As critical components of regional ecological networks, the protection and development of ecological corridors (ECs) are essential for enhancing ecosystem stability. To promote the effective protection of ECs, this study develops an integrated framework—comprising ecological corridor identification, land use simulation, and construction cost assessment—to evaluate the cost of EC construction in Nanchang under multiple future land-use scenarios. High-resolution, multi-temporal remote sensing data were used to simulate land-use patterns for 2035 under three scenarios—ecological protection (EP), natural development (ND), and urban expansion (UE)—with the PLUS model. ECs were extracted using the Minimum Cumulative Resistance (MCR) model, and construction costs were quantitatively estimated by overlaying simulated land-use maps with corridor networks while incorporating land adjustment and compensation standards. The results show that: (1) 23 ECs (564.01 km in length, 997.93 km2 in area) were identified in Nanchang, with higher corridor density in the northern and southeastern regions. (2) By 2035, the overall land-use structure in Nanchang is projected to remain broadly similar across the three scenarios, though differences will exist in the magnitude of change for individual land-use categories. (3) Cropland dominates the EC landscape (>60%) across all scenarios, while construction land accounts for 6.95%, 7.71%, and 8.39% under the EP, ND, and UE scenarios, respectively. (4) Estimated construction costs are 233.707, 262.354, and 288.897 billion RMB yuan under the EP, ND, and UE scenarios, respectively. Significant spatial variation in costs is observed, and the EP scenario does not consistently yield the lowest costs across administrative units. Additionally, this study proposes a refined zoning strategy for corridor management in Nanchang. The findings offer valuable insights for urban ecological planning and provide a scientific basis for mitigating regional ecological risks while promoting sustainable development in urbanized regions.