Analysing Causes of Carbon Density Dynamics in Subtropical Forests

Understanding how biotic and environmental drivers jointly shape forest carbon dynamics over time is essential for climate-adapted management of subtropical forests. We investigated the long-term interactions between biotic factors, environmental factors, and forest carbon dynamics in the subtropical forests of Jiangxi Province, China, over the period 1989–2019. The High Accuracy Surface Modelling (HASM) multi-source data fusion method integrates ground observation points with area-wide data from remote sensing and existing datasets to simulate the spatial distribution of forest carbon density across the entire study area. In Zixi, forest carbon density increased most rapidly between 1989 and 2009, after which the rate slowed as forest stands matured. Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) disentangled direct and indirect effects of drivers, and identified species richness and community-weighted functional traits as key positive drivers of aboveground carbon density. The influence of environmental factors reversed over the study period. Under ongoing global warming, the combined effects of altitude, temperature, and precipitation shifted from suppressing to reinforcing carbon accumulation in later years, increasingly operating through pathways mediated by functional traits. These findings enhance our understanding of carbon dynamics in subtropical forests and underline the importance of preserving species richness, especially in subtropical mountain forest. This study provides valuable insights for adaptive forest management and climate change mitigation strategies, aiming to improve ecosystem resilience and sustain carbon sequestration efforts in the face of ongoing global warming.