A Methodological Approach to Address Economic Vulnerability to Wildfires in Europe

The assessment of the economic vulnerability of natural disasters is a necessary step in the evaluation of any risks. This study proposes the approach implemented under the H2020 FirEurisk project to value the economic damage of wildfires on a European scale. Economic damage is assessed as the net value change in natural (agricultural and forestry resources and their ecosystem services) and manufactured assets under simulated fire intensity, taking into consideration the time necessary for natural capital to recover to the pre-damaged conditions. We show minimum, maximum, and average damage for European countries and map the critical areas. Damages to provisioning-ecosystem services are more pronounced in Central Europe because of the lower resilience of ecosystems compared to the Mediterranean, suggesting that mitigation measures (such as managing vegetation to reduce fuel; improving access to fire services; and engaging communities through education, agriculture, and forest management participation) must be enforced. We are confident that the approach proposed may stimulate further research to test the goodness of the estimates proposed and suggest where it is more appropriate to invest in fire prevention.