Coverage-Based Framework for Estimating Total Vehicle Travel Distance Using Point-to-Point Trajectory Data

Vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) is a critical metric in transportation and environmental research. However, conventional VKT estimation approaches frequently fail to capture the complexity of route selection and spatiotemporal dynamics of individual road users. This study presents a framework for accurately estimating the total VKT using high-resolution trajectory data obtained from a commercial navigation system. To address the structural limitations of conventional origin destination matrix-based models, such as the modifiable areal unit problem, representative routes were identified based on cumulative travel distance coverage. A novel metric, coverage of estimated travel (CET), was introduced to quantify the explanatory capacity of these routes in approximating total travel distance. Representative routes were selected to maximize CET, and the resulting VKT estimates were validated against national statistical yearbook data. Robustness was further evaluated using mean absolute percentage error, correlation analysis, paired t-tests, and bootstrap-based confidence intervals. The results indicated that as few as five representative routes accounted for over 80% of the total estimated VKT, exhibiting strong agreement with the national statistics after temporal adjustment. These findings demonstrate that trajectory data can serve as a practical alternative to traditional methods, offering higher spatial resolution and enabling dynamic traffic analyses that support transportation policy and environmental planning.