Evaluation and prediction of water resources carrying capacity in Chengdu based on system dynamic model

Water resource is an important natural resource for sustainable development. As a branch of environmental carrying capacity, water resource carrying capacity has strategic significance for regional water resource management. Reasonable evaluation and prediction of regional water resources carrying capacity can help relevant departments to formulate better policies on water supply and sewage treatment, promote rational water resources allocation between regions, reduce the overall water resources shortage and maximize the economic benefits of regional water resources. As an effective method to deal with high order complex systems, system dynamics method is very effective in the analysis of water resources carrying capacity. Sichuan Province is rich in total water resources, and its per capita water resources are higher than the national water resources, but the uneven distribution of time and space makes it easy to form regional and seasonal water shortages. Chengdu ranks lower in precipitation among provincial capitals, and the precipitation is less stable with climate change. In this paper, the system dynamics method is used to analyze and simulate the relevant data of water resources in Chengdu from 2017 to 2021. By analyzing the influencing factors and feedback loops of water resources carrying capacity in Chengdu, the evaluation model of water resources carrying capacity in Chengdu is constructed, and the carrying limit of water resources in Chengdu is evaluated and predicted.