The impact of rural digital economy development on agricultural carbon emissions: A study based on prefecture-level cities in China

• Rural digital economy development increases local agricultural carbon emissions but reduces them in neighboring areas. • Green innovation benefits from rural digital economy growth, but its current low share associates with increased emissions. • Agricultural mechanization promoted by the rural digital economy leads to higher agricultural carbon emissions. • The impact of rural digital economy expansion on agricultural carbon emissions is more pronounced in western regions and areas with higher digital infrastructure input. The influence of rural digital economy growth on agricultural carbon emissions is yet unknown as a new driver of rural development. This study uses Spatial Durbin and Mediation models to examine how rural digital economy development (RDED) affected agricultural carbon emissions (ACE) across 261 prefecture-level Chinese cities between 2018 and 2020. The paper also looks at how green innovation and agricultural mechanization (AME) affect agricultural carbon emissions. The results show that (1) RDED significantly increases ACE in localized areas by 19.2 % but decreases ACE in neighboring areas by 10.8 %. (2) At this stage, RDED increases ACE by increasing the level of AME; at the same time, although it promotes the level of green innovation, lower share of green innovation would also have a positive correlation with ACE. (3) The impact of RDED on ACE is more pronounced in western regions and regions with higher levels of digital infrastructure input.