On the non-linear response of Antarctic ice shelf surface melt to warming

Abstract. Surface meltwater can saturate firn, form melt ponds, and trigger hydrofracturing of Antarctic ice shelves, ultimately accelerating grounded ice flow and contributing to sea level rise. Although the response of surface melt to atmospheric warming (expressed by near-surface air temperature) is known to be non-linear, the mechanisms driving this non-linearity remain poorly understood. In this study we explain the non-linear temperature-melt relationship from an energy balance perspective and assess its spatial variability across Antarctic ice shelves. We use the regional climate model RACMO2.4p1, forced by ERA5 re-analysis and two global earth system models under the SSP3-7.0 high emission scenario, to simulate contemporary and future Antarctic climate and surface mass balance until 2100. We find that the temperature dependence of net shortwave radiation is the primary driver of the non-linearity. On relatively cold ice shelves, warming increases cloud cover and snowfall, raising albedo, reducing net shortwave radiation. In contrast, on warmer ice shelves the snowmelt-albedo feedback dominates the response: warming leads to melt that reduces albedo, enhancing shortwave radiation absorption. The temperature–melt relationship also varies spatially: ice shelves in drier regions experience more melt at the same average summer temperatures than those in wetter regions, highlighting the role of snowfall in suppressing the albedo feedback. When mean summer air temperatures reach or exceed the melting point (0 °C), ice shelves becomes even more sensitive to warming. Surface temperatures can not rise above 0 °C while the atmosphere can, allowing the sensible heat and net longwave radiation to increase. At the same time, snowfall transitions to rain, amplifying the albedo feedback. Our results suggest that currently colder, drier and stable ice shelves could experience rapid increases in melt under future warming, with implications for their long-term stability.