Warming Projections of Eastern Mediterranean in CMIP6 Simulations According to SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 Scenarios

This study investigates the future temperature changes in the climate-vulnerable region of the Eastern Mediterranean. The results from seventeen (17) CMIP6 (6th Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) model simulations are analyzed. The analysis is focused on the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The ERA5 reanalysis is used as a reference dataset to investigate the performance of CMIP6 simulations to accurately reproduce the mean temperature in the Eastern Mediterranean region. The results show that CMIP6 model simulations vary regarding their efficiency for capturing the mean temperature. Future projections show that significant warming is shown during the last period of the 21st century. The continental Balkan and Turkish regions are recognized as the most affected areas regarding future warming. The increase in temperature spatially ranges (in local scale) from 1.5 °C to 4.5 °C for the SSP2-4.5 scenario and from 3.0 °C to 8.0 °C for the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Finally, the seasonal analysis indicates that summer (JJA) shows the maximum temperature increase compared with the other seasons.