Exogenous Predictors of Land Administration Digitisation in South-South Nigeria: A SEM Analysis

The study examines the external determinants influencing the digitisation of Land Administration Systems (LAS) in South-South Nigeria. Particularly, it focused on exogenous opportunities and threats that influence institutional readiness, technological standardisation, information dissemination, and technological adoption. Anchored in the Technology–Organization–Environment (TOE) framework and Institutional Theory, the research adopts a cross-sectional survey methodology, engaging 303 participants, comprising land professionals, government actors, and key stakeholders across the six states in the region. Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) was employed in evaluating the predictive validity of exogenous factors. The results indicate that opportunity variables, such as the existence of clear land title protocols, improved accessibility of online platforms, and robust GIS infrastructure, were statistically significant enablers of LAS digitisation. Conversely, commonly cited constraints including digital exclusion, tenure-related disputes, inadequate infrastructure, and unreliable electricity supply demonstrate limited statistical influence. These outcomes stress the importance of opportunity-led drivers over threats. Conceptually, the study advances the TOE framework by illustrating the decisive role of technological opportunities within fragile institutional ecosystems, while simultaneously challenging the presupposed centrality of coercive institutional pressures posited by Institutional Theory. From a policy standpoint, the study advocates for an emphasis on scaling enabling technologies and harmonising regulatory environments as critical imperatives for advancing sustainable LAS digitisation in Nigeria and comparable developing contexts.