Management options for dry bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) under the projected climate change in the semi-arid areas of eastern Amhara, Northeastern Ethiopia

Climate change severely affects Ethiopia, whose economy depends on climate-sensitive agriculture with low adaptive capacity. Determining climate change at local scale helps offset the negative impacts and take opportunities from the positive ones to enhance crop productivity. This study aims to (1) determine rainfall and temperature changes in 2040s (2030–2060) and 2080s (2069–2099) using CMIP6 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6) models under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios (2) calibrate and evaluate the CROPGRO-dry bean model (3) predict impact of climate change on dry bean phenology, growth, and yield. (4) Explore crop management options for dry bean crop. The CROPGRO-Dry bean model in DSSAT v4.8 (Denison Support System for Agro-meteorology Transfer) was used to predict impacts of climate change and explore management strategies. Baseline (1984–2014) and future climate data were obtained from the National Meteorological institute, Ethiopia, and the Earth Systems Grid Federation, respectively. The CROPGRO-dry bean model was calibrated and evaluated using field experiments. The results showed excellent agreements between the simulated and measured values. The projected annual rainfall showed inconsistent positive change while temperature revealed consistent increasing trends across periods and scenarios. The projected climate showed negative impacts on days to flowering and maturity, while positive on biomass and grain yields. The integrated use of long-duration cultivar, late sowing date, and supplementary irrigation may significantly increase grain yield by 43.5 % in the baseline, 36 % and 35.7 % under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. These practices could be used to integrate manner for sustainable dry bean production in eastern Amhara, northeastern, Ethiopia. • Projected annual and Kiremt season rainfall and temperature revealed consistently increased with low variabilities across time periods and scenarios. • The calibrated CROPGRO-dry bean model accurately simulated measured values. • Projected climate change may reduce the time to flowering and maturity in bean crops, while potentially increasing biomass and grain yield. • Adapting to late sowing and utilizing long duration dry bean cultivars with supplemental irrigation effectively maximizes and stabilize dry bean yields, enhancing food security in vulnerable regions.