Affective Polarization and Defensive Turnout of Black Voters: The 2020 Crucible

Why do African Americans vote in huge numbers, even when enthusiasm for the Democratic Party is low? For decades, scholars pointed to racial solidarity and loyalty to the Democrats. But what if hostility, not loyalty, is a driving force? This paper introduces the defensive turnout theory, which is the idea that in racially charged elections, many Black voters cast ballots not out of enthusiasm for Democrats, but to block Republican threats. Using standard logistic regression models to analyze the 2020 American National Election Studies (ANES) data, the study finds that hostility toward the Republican Party is positively associated with Black turnout rates more than warmth toward the Democratic Party. Each 10-point increase in anti-Republican sentiment is positively associated with a voting odd of 9%, while equivalent Democratic warmth is counterintuitively associated with a 14.7% decrease in turnout odds at a 95% confidence interval even after accounting for key sociodemographic factors. While causality cannot be inferred from the cross-sectional design, the 2020 election presents a unique case of a high-stakes and racially charged electoral landmark, which invites scholars and practitioners to rethink what truly motivates Black turnout and what belonging means when democracy itself feels contested in a polarized era.