Assessing the future effectiveness of ecological protection and restoration by compiling ecological patterns & services indicators and multi-scenario simulation

Increasing globalisation has exerted pressure on global ecosystems, therefore, ecological restoration must be employed to control ecological degradation. Due to natural succession’s nonlinear responses and ecological hysteresis effects, ecological restoration exhibits a temporal lag in its impact on ecosystems. Existing studies primarily focus on immediate effects prior to and following project implementation, yet they don’t model, predict, or assess its future restoration effectiveness beyond immediate project cycles. In this study, the restoration future effectiveness within the Jingzhou Shan-Shui initiative will be examined, utilising a "scenario driven"-"patter evolution"-"service response" framework. A "Restoration-Pattern-Service" indicator was developed based on the PLUS-InVEST model to compare four scenarios, namely, Natural Development (ND), Extensive Economy (EE), Ecological Rest oration (ER), and Eco-friendly Development (ED), with future potential ecological risk areas identified. The main findings were as follows: By 2035, built-up land in the ND and EE will reach 5.24% and 5.99%, with a more limited expansion under ED and ER; Ecosystem patterns-services varied across scenarios, with ED and ER exhibit better; More potential risk areas were found in EE and ND; In ED and ER scenarios, risk hotspots will concentrate in cropland-urban inter-transition zones. This study finds the integration of ecological restoration into regional development may optimise ecosystem outcomes, hence, future activities should seek to achieve an equilibrium between regional development and ecological conservation. The main objective of this essay is to provide methodological support for monitoring and management in assessing the future effectiveness of restoration, while offering a scientific basis for formulating and optimising regional sustainability. • Propose a framework for assessing the future effectiveness of ecological restoration. • Reveal restoration’s long-term effectiveness to promote sustainable development. • Quantify substantial risk reduction through restoration practice. • Clarify the future potential risk areas of restoration practice. • Provide tools for optimising ecological restoration and sustainable development.