Composite function and Biomod2 for evaluating the influence of climate change on the distribution of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in China

Vector-borne diseases transmitted by <i>Aedes,</i> including dengue fever, Chikungunya fever, Zika virus, and yellow fever, represent major global public health threats. This study utilized the Biomod2 modeling framework, incorporating 19 bioclimatic variables, to simulate the current and future geographical distributions of <i>Aedes aegypti</i> and <i>Aedes albopictus</i> in China under climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The results indicated that under future climate scenarios, highly suitable regions for both <i>Aedes</i> would decrease in area, while moderately suitable regions would expand. The co-presence probability analysis revealed that highly suitable regions for both species would concentrate in southern and southeastern China, with notable areas in Yunnan, Guangxi, Guangdong, and Hainan. From current to 2090s, the centroid would shift to northeast under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. For <i>Ae. aegypti</i>, the most important variables were isothermality (bio3, 44.05 %), precipitation of the wettest quarter (bio16, 27.87 %), and mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11, 22.4 %). For <i>Ae. albopictus</i>, the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11, 54.12 %), annual precipitation (bio12, 22.76 %), and precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio19, 13.47 %) were most significant. These findings highlight the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution dynamics of dengue vectors and provide a basis for developing targeted surveillance and control strategies to mitigate future transmission risks.