EEG-Based Prediction of Stress Responses to Naturalistic Decision-Making Stimuli in Police Cadets

The ability of police officers to make correct decisions under emotional stress is critical, as errors in high-pressure situations can have severe legal and physical consequences. This study aims to evaluate the neurophysiological responses of police academy cadets during stressful decision-making scenarios and to predict individual stress levels from those responses. Fifty-eight police academy cadets from three cohorts watched a custom-made, naturalistic video scene and then chose the appropriate course of action. Simultaneous 32-channel electroencephalography (EEG) and electrocardiography (ECG) captured brain and heart activity. Event-related potentials (ERPs) and band-specific power features (particularly delta) were extracted, and machine-learning models were trained with nested cross-validation to predict perceived stress scores. Global and broadband EEG activity was suppressed during the video stimulus and did not return to baseline during the cooldown phase. Widespread ERPs and pronounced delta-band dynamics emerged during decision-making, correlating with both cohort rank and self-reported stress. Crucially, a combined EEG + cohort model predicted perceived stress with an out-of-fold <i>R</i>² of 0.32, outperforming EEG-only (<i>R</i>² = 0.23) and cohort-only (<i>R</i>² = 0.17) models. To our knowledge, this is the first study to both characterize EEG dynamics during stressful naturalistic decision tasks and demonstrate their predictive utility. These findings lay the groundwork for neurofeedback-based training paradigms that help officers modulate stress responses and calibrate decision-making under pressure.