Does Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender (LGBT) Pride Affect Voting Behavior? Evidence From Taiwan's 2018 Referendum and Local Government Elections

ABSTRACT This study examines the impact of lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) pride on voting behavior in the 2018 Taiwan referendum and local government elections. Using the Geographic Regression Discontinuity (GRD) design and comprehensive voting data, the results show that LGBT pride has little influence on voters' decisions regarding either LGBT‐friendly or LGBT‐unfriendly propositions in the referendum. Furthermore, LGBT pride has a negligible effect on voters' political ideologies in local government elections. These conclusions are found to be robust across multiple model specifications, and the peaceful nature of Taiwan's LGBT pride events is a likely explanation for these findings.