Role of farmland transfer contract formalization in reducing downside risk of grain yield under extreme weather events: insights from China

In China, the rising frequency of extreme weather events poses threats to grain production and increases the downside risk of grain yield. Meanwhile, the rate of farmland transfer has increased significantly. In the process of farmland transfer, the formalization of farmland transfer contracts has the potential to reduce the downside risk of grain yield due to extreme weather events. However, studies on its impact remain limited. This study investigates the risk-reducing effect of farmland transfer contract formalization and explores the underlying mechanisms. Using Chinese provincial-level data spanning 2006 to 2022 and the fixed-effects model, the empirical results show that farmland transfer contract formalization significantly reduces the downside risk of grain yield. Mechanism analysis reveals that farmland transfer contract formalization encourages investment in irrigation equipment, promotes farmland expansion, and increases participation in agricultural insurance, thereby reducing the downside risk of grain yield. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the risk-reducing effect is most pronounced in major grain-producing regions, northern China, and maize-growing areas. Based on the above findings, this study recommends actively promoting the formalization of farmland transfer contracts, especially in China’s key grain-producing regions and northern areas.