Empowering energy security: The impact of geopolitical risks on green total factor energy efficiency

Geopolitical risks (GPR) have long posed significant challenges to global energy security and environmental sustainability. This paper investigates a critical dimension of energy security by constructing a Green Total Factor Energy Efficiency (GTFEE) index, derived from the super-efficiency SBM model, to examine the impact of geopolitical risk on energy efficiency across 43 countries from 1998 to 2022. Employing instrumental variable quantile regression, the results show a positive relationship between GPR and GTFEE, with the effect becoming stronger at higher GTFEE quantiles. This impact is more pronounced in developing economies with mid-to-low income levels than in high-income developed nations. Furthermore, using a regression discontinuity design, the study finds that events such as military conflicts, international tensions, and Public Health Emergencies of International Concern (PHEIC) significantly increase GTFEE. Complementary analysis based on the World Energy Trilemma Index further indicates that geopolitical risks enhance energy security and environmental sustainability. These findings provide policymakers and practitioners with empirical insights to optimize energy management strategies, strengthen resilience against geopolitical uncertainties, and promote sustainable energy practices on a global scale. • Geopolitical risk boosts green total factor energy efficiency. • Geopolitical risk effects are stronger in developing and lower-income countries. • World Energy Council energy security and sustainability improve. • Energy equity stays flat while overall world energy trilemma score drops.