Modeling the cell temperature of rooftop PV panels under dynamic environmental conditions: implications for power output and temperature in shaded areas

Abstract Photovoltaic (PV) module performance is heavily influenced by temperature, requiring precise modelling to optimise rooftop systems that support the UN Sustainable Development Goals. This paper presents a simplified mathematical model for estimating the temperature of solar cells in rooftop installations under dynamic environmental conditions. The model considers primary convective and conductive heat transfer, with the heat transfer coefficient being adaptively adjusted to reflect the interaction between the rear surface of the PV panel and the ambient temperature at different wind speeds. Additionally, the thermal model is used to predict power generation. Validation through real-time experiments on a 100-W PV panel showed a deviation of only 1–2% in temperature predictions and around 4 % and 3 % in power output in unshaded and shaded conditions, respectively. These results confirm the model’s reliability and its practical usefulness for accurate performance evaluation of rooftop PV systems in real-world environments. Furthermore, power loss caused by leakage current in the bypass string under shading conditions was experimentally measured, opening a new path for future research.