After globalisation? The future of European Multinationals in an era of geopolitical uncertainty

European Multinationals (EMs) have become champions of globalisation due to distinctive capabilities rooted in historical, structural, and cultural foundations. However, rising geopolitical uncertainty within and beyond the European Union (EU) poses unprecedented challenges today. We outline four scenarios for EMs in possible futures shaped by different combinations of intra-EU and inter-regional developments: (I) fractured regionalisation , (II) fractured globalisation , (III) reinforced globalisation , and (IV) reinforced regionalisation . Each of these scenarios comes with varying degrees of opportunities, threats, and pressures to which EMs must adapt. For each scenario, we highlight the risks EMs face and the capabilities they can leverage. We identify strategic options to handle each scenario, via, for example, market selection, resource reallocation, leveraging of subsidiary capabilities, and partnerships with public actors.