Evaluating the Influence of Operational Uncertainty on Solar Photovoltaic System Design and Economic Viability: Case Study for Commercial Building in Abu Dhabi

ABSTRACT This study investigates the impact of uncertainty in building operation patterns on the design and techno‐economic performance of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in a commercial building in a hot arid region in Abu Dhabi, UAE. Utilizing the Design‐Builder software, a model of a commercial hotel building was developed and calibrated to assess its energy demand. Three distinct operational scenarios—Austere, Baseline, and Wasteful—were analyzed in this study, each considering both grid‐connected PV systems with and without energy storage solutions. The study employed sensitivity analyses to understand how variations in modeling inputs affect the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) and the levelized cost of storage (LCOS). The findings reveal significant variations in LCOE and LCOS across different scenarios, in which the minimum (LCOE) can be achieved at $0.165/kWh for the Baseline Case, $0.191/kWh for the Austere Case, and $0.162/kWh for the Wasteful Case, while the minimum (LCOS) can reach $0.30/kWh for Baseline case, $0.55/kWh for Austere case, and $0.19/kWh for Wasteful Case, underscoring the necessity of tailored PV system designs to optimize performance and economic feasibility. This study contributes to the growing body of knowledge of sustainable building energy solutions, highlighting the importance of incorporating operational uncertainties into the planning and design of renewable energy systems.