Comparing Admission Readiness of Public vs. Private School Students in the United Arab Emirates

This study investigates differences in university admission readiness between public and private Grade 12 students in the United Arab Emirates using a national Ministry of Education dataset of 448 subgroups. Readiness was defined as meeting national entry requirements. Logistic regression and random forest models were applied to quantify the role of school sector alongside academic performance and demographics. Results show near-universal readiness (99.1%), with the few “Not Ready” cases confined to continuous education programs. School sector was not significant once achievement features were included; instead, pass percentage and average scores dominated predictions. Findings suggest that reforms under the Emirati School Model (2017) have closed historical readiness gaps, although differences remain in the proportion of high achievers. Policy implications include shifting focus from admission eligibility to post-admission outcomes such as first-year GPA, retention, and progression.