Techno-economic assessment of biomass-to-liquid fuel production via chemical looping in comparison to conventional pathways

Rising liquid fuel demand is increasing CO₂ emissions, making renewable biomass technologies vital for a low-carbon future. This study presents a chemical looping-based biomass conversion process integrated with Fischer-Tropsch synthesis (CLFT) for liquid fuel production and evaluates its techno-economic performance against two established biomass-based pathways: biomass gasification to liquid fuels (GFT) and biomass pyrolysis to liquid fuels (PHP). A minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) analysis, conducted using a discounted cash flow approach, estimates MFSP values of $3.59/GGE for CLFT, $5.26/GGE for GFT, and $4.54/GGE for PHP. The energy efficiencies of CLFT, GFT, and PHP are at 37.7 %, 37.3 %, and 46.4 %, respectively, while their carbon conversion efficiencies are 32.3 %, 30.5 %, and 40.4 %. Sensitivity analyses reveal that feedstock cost exerts the greatest influence on MFSP, followed by the internal rate of return and capital expenditures. Additionally, a 50 % increase in plant capacity (from the baseline 2000 dry tons/day of biomass) results in only an 11 % reduction in MFSP, whereas a 50 % decrease in plant size leads to a 17 % increase in MFSP. These findings highlight CLFT's economic and technical advantages, reinforcing its promise as a cost-effective, sustainable fuel generation alternative. • CLFT, GFT, and PHP processes compared via discounted cash flow analysis. • CLFT has the lowest MFSP: $3.59/GGE vs GFT: $5.26, PHP: $4.54/GGE. • Energy efficiencies are CLFT 37.7 %, GFT 37.3 %, PHP 46.4 % • Carbon conversion efficiencies are CLFT 32.3 %, GFT 30.5 %, PHP 40.4 % • 50 % size increase cuts MFSP by 11 % while a 50 % decrease raises it by 17 %.