Assessing regional climate warming risk to plant species: a basis for adaptation planning

Abstract This study presents a climate change risk assessment for plant species in South Korea, incorporating temperature rise projections under the four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios from the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). The assessment methodology evaluated species sensitivity to temperature changes and the vulnerability to losing suitable habitats by 2100, translating these factors into species extirpation risk. The sensitivity analysis classified the plant species into four grades based on statistical correlations between their geographical distributions and temperature distributions. Subsequently, the vulnerability analysis determined how rapidly the current suitable temperature zones for each species will deviate from future climate conditions by comparing current temperature ranges with projected future temperatures in 20-year intervals under four SSP scenarios. Based on these analyses, species were classified according to risk assessment grades. This assessment indicated a significant increase in the species extirpation rate, particularly under pessimistic scenarios like SSP5-8.5. By 2100, over 1,000 species could face extirpation, representing over 40% of the total evaluated species in this study. This study proposed adaptive strategies for species conservation, prioritizing urgent measures for high-risk species. This approach aims to inform effective policy responses to mitigate the impacts of climate change on South Korea’s plant biodiversity.