Prediction of electron fluxes in a circular polar orbit: Selection of predictors

We have investigated the relationship of variations in >0.7 and >2 MeV electron fluxes of Earth's outer radiation belt in a circular polar orbit with solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters, as well as with geomagnetic indices and the logarithmic electron flux in the geostationary orbit in order to explore the possibility of predicting them. We have selected the optimal input features for predicting electron fluxes in low polar orbits, which is important for ensuring the radiation safety of future space missions. We have examined integral and maximum electron fluxes of these energies over the span of a day. We have obtained forecasts with a horizon of 1 and 2 days for an interval of 2 months in 2020 for daily maximum and integral fluxes based on linear regression.

Authors

Institutions

Publication Details

Journal
Solnechno-Zemnaya Fizika
Published
2025-09-22
DOI
https://doi.org/10.12737/szf-113202509
Primary Topic
Ionosphere and magnetosphere dynamics
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
article

Prediction of electron fluxes in a circular polar orbit: Selection of predictors

I. N. Myagkova, Анна Белова
Solnechno-Zemnaya Fizika
Ionosphere and magnetosphere dynamics
article

Prediction of electron fluxes in a circular polar orbit: Selection of predictors

I. N. Myagkova, Анна Белова
article en

Abstract

We have investigated the relationship of variations in >0.7 and >2 MeV electron fluxes of Earth's outer radiation belt in a circular polar orbit with solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters, as well as with geomagnetic indices and the logarithmic electron flux in the geostationary orbit in order to explore the possibility of predicting them. We have selected the optimal input features for predicting electron fluxes in low polar orbits, which is important for ensuring the radiation safety of future space missions. We have examined integral and maximum electron fluxes of these energies over the span of a day. We have obtained forecasts with a horizon of 1 and 2 days for an interval of 2 months in 2020 for daily maximum and integral fluxes based on linear regression.

Solnechno-Zemnaya FizikaVol. 11(3)
Lomonosov Moscow State University (RU), Institute of Nuclear Physics (UZ), Moscow State University (TJ)
Openalex Percentile: Top 82%
Ionosphere and magnetosphere dynamics
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.