THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE REPUBLIC OF AZERBAIJAN

The objective of the research is to develop a conceptual approach to the factors influencing the formation of climate change in the territory of Azerbaijan, its impact mechanisms, and the ecological crises they induce. Therefore, in th e study, climate change is divided into several stages, with each stage being thoroughly explained using precise factual data. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of the interrelationships and impact mechanisms of ecological crises formed by climate change in the territory of the Republic of Azerbaijan. The results are evaluated using advanced cartographic and mathematical-statistical processing methods such as ArcGIS, SPSS, Stock Stat, and MS Excel. The air temperature, atmospheric precipitation, and physical characteristics of glaciers for the periods 1961-1990, 1991-2020, 1981-2010, and 2011-2023 were compared. The study examines the climate change process in the country’s territory in three stages: formation, impact mechanisms, and outcomes. For the first time, a conceptual model of climate change specific to Azerbaijan was developed based on these features. An increase in the volume of exploited groundwater resources has been observed across the country. Under the influence of climate change, shifts in wind direction and average speeds have occurred. The scientific work presents a map delineating the approximate impact zones of warming effects. The air temperature increase of 0.8°C was accompanied by a 4% decrease in precipitation. Climate change has resulted in a 15-23% reduction in glaciers over the past seven years, an increase in drought, and an acceleration of desertification. Approximately 36.5% of the country’s surface area is projected to be at risk of dangerous atmospheric processes.