Climate Change Effects on Soil Fertility and Moisture in the Nakhchivanchay RiverBasin, Azerbaijan

This study is devoted to the assessment of soil fertility and moisture content under the influence of climate change.In the Nakhchivanchay River basin of Azerbaijan, climatic factors had only a negative impact on the soil cover in 1999-2024, and soil moisture gradually decreased.As a result, the area of highly degraded soils increased by 20.3%, and actual soil water moisture decreased by 11.3%, from 232.8 to 206.5 mm.This value constitutes an annual water volume of 42.71million m 3 , which is a very high water loss for the land cover of the study area located in an arid region.Another negative manifestation of climate change is the 2.1% decrease in the fraction of precipitation falling during the vegetation season in the annual indicator.It has been established that within certain limits of climate change, land cover degradation remains relatively stable, but after crossing critical thresholds, it begins to deteriorate at a faster rate.The values of average temperature 13.8C, precipitation 320 mm, and humidity coefficient 0.325 were defined as crisis ranges.It has been established that in certain areas, especially in large cities and suburbs, there is an increase in soil moisture and fertility, as well as a thickening of vegetation cover.This is due to population growth, the development of household plots and pastures, afforestation, and other greening activities.Between 2020 and 2025 alone, the population in these zones increased by 3.21%, the area of settlements by 6.07%, and the area of fertile land by 4.45%.