Study on Carbon Emission Accounting and Influencing Factors of Chinese Buildings in Materialization Stage

Carbon emissions in the building materialization stage are highly significant and concentrated. Quantification at this stage is essential for assessing carbon reduction potential, guiding energy-saving strategies, and supporting China’s “dual carbon” goals in the construction sector. Distinct from conventional environmental and energy economics analytical approaches, the building carbon emissions in the materialization stage (BCEMS) in 30 provinces of China from 2010 to 2021 were calculated using multi-source data, and the characteristics of their spatio-temporal evolution were analyzed. The key influencing factors were identified using a geographic detector, and their spatial heterogeneity was analyzed with the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model from a geographical analysis perspective. The results indicated the following: (1) From 2010 to 2021, BCEMS exhibited a trend of an “initial increase followed by a decrease and subsequent fluctuation”, with an average annual growth rate of 4.28%. Building materials were the largest contributor to BCEMS, particularly cement and steel. Spatially, the emissions displayed a pattern of “higher in the east, lower in the west”. High–high-agglomeration areas remained stable over time, primarily in Zhejiang and Fujian provinces, while low–low-agglomeration areas were concentrated in Xinjiang. (2) Single-factor detection revealed that fixed assets, population density, and the liabilities of construction enterprises were the dominant factors driving the emissions’ spatial evolution. Two-factor interaction detection identified the economic society and the construction industry as the key influencing domains. (3) The economic development level and the total population showed a positive correlation with BCEMS, with the effect intensity increasing from west to east. The urbanization level and fixed assets also generally showed a positive correlation with BCEMS; however, their effect intensity initially increased positively from west to east and then turned into a negative enhancement. The findings provide references for implementing regionally differentiated carbon reduction measures and promoting green and low-carbon urban transformation in China’s construction industry.