Projected Future Changes in Burn Probability in Canada’s Forests and Communities Under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Vegetation inventories characterizing potential fuels represents critical information underpinning wildfire management and emergency response planning. Available fuels can be characterized in terms of burn probability, which describes the degree to which a set of biotic and abiotic conditions corresponds to known or simulated burned areas. Changes in future climate are expected to result in corresponding shifts in burn probability. In this study, existing burn probability models based on climate, vegetation, and topographic conditions were used as inputs with variables from four future climate scenarios to examine the spatiotemporal distribution of burn probability in the 21st century. Changes were calculated and analyzed for all pixels in forest-dominated ecozones in Canada and 160 forest-adjacent communities by comparing future projections to contemporary values of burn probability. By 2100, overall median projected burn probability increased by 17% across scenarios, ranging from 4 - 60% across individual ecozones. Burn probability likewise increased for the majority of forest-adjacent communities, although the magnitude of the increase was highly variable. The results of this study show the spatiotemporal distribution of changes in burn probability under future climate scenarios and provide valuable information for those interested in implementing mitigation techniques (e.g., prescribed burning, thinning, creation of defensible spaces or firebreaks) to reduce the impacts of future fires.