Projected 21st Century Increased Water Stress in the Athabasca River Basin: The Center of Canada’s Oil Sands Industry

The Athabasca River Basin (ARB) is the location of the Canadian oil sands industry and 70.8% of global estimated bitumen deposits. The Athabasca River is the water source for highly water-intensive bitumen processing. Our objective is to project ARB temperature, precipitation, total runoff, climate moisture index (CMI), and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for 2011–2100 using the superior modelling skill of seven regional climate models (RCMs) from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). These projections show an average 6 °C annual temperature increase for 2071–2100 under RCP 8.5 relative to 1971–2000. Resulting increases in evapotranspiration may be partially offset by an average 0.3 mm/day annual precipitation increase. The projected precipitation increases are in the winter, spring, and autumn, with declines in summer. CORDEX RCMs project a slight increase (0.04 mm/day) in annual averaged runoff, with a shift to an earlier springtime melt pulse. However, these are countered by projected declines in summer and early autumn runoff. There will be significant decreases in annual and summertime CMI and annual SPEI. We conclude that there will be increasingly stressed ARB water availability, particularly in summer, doubtless resulting in repercussions on ARB industrial activities with their extensive water allocations and withdrawals.