Development of a Model for Increasing the Capacity of Small and Medium-Sized Ports Using the Principles of Probability Theory

Every year, more and more general and other types of cargo are transported by containers, and many ports, including small and medium-sized ones, are trying to join the container transportation processes. Port connectivity with container shipping is associated with easier and faster cargo processing and reduced environmental impact by optimizing ship arrivals and processing in small and medium-sized ports. Small and medium-sized ports are often limited by port infrastructure, especially suitable quays; therefore, it is very important to correctly assess the capabilities of such ports so that ships do not have to wait for entry and so that quays and other port infrastructure are optimally used. The research is relevant because small and medium-sized ports are increasingly involved in the activities of logistics chains and are becoming very important for the development of individual regions. The wider use of small and medium-sized ports in logistics chains is a new and original research direction. Optimal assessment of port or terminal and berth utilization is possible using the principles of probability theory. The article develops and presents a probabilistic method for assessment of port and terminal and ship mooring at their berths, using possible and actual time periods, based on the principles of transport process organization and linked to the capabilities of the port infrastructure and terminal superstructure. The conditional probability method was used to assess port and terminal capacity, as well as a method for assessing ship maneuverability under limited conditions. The developed probabilistic method for assessing port terminals and ship berthing at port quays can be used in any port or terminal, taking into account local conditions. Combined theoretical research and experimental results of the optimal use of small and medium-sized ports ensure sufficient research quality.