Energy Abundance vs Energy Poverty in Nigeria: Empirical Analysis of Access to Clean Cooking Fuels and Technologies

The paradox of energy abundance and energy poverty describes the contradiction where countries endowed with vast energy resources struggle to provide modern energy access to their populations. According to the World Bank, less than 15% of Nigerians have access to clean cooking energy, with the majority relying on traditional biomass such as firewood and charcoal, which have adverse health, environmental, and socio-economic implications. This paradox in Nigeria is investigated by analysing access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking, quarterly time-series data from the World Bank spanning 2000 to 2024. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) (p,d,q) modelling framework was employed to analyse and forecast trends in clean cooking energy access. The model incorporates access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking (% of population) as the dependent variable, while autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) components serve as independent variables. The study is grounded in the Energy Ladder Theory, which posits that households transition from traditional biomass to cleaner and more efficient energy sources as income and education levels rise. Estimation using Generalised Least Squares (GLS) reveals a statistically significant positive coefficient for MA (4) at 0.4567, suggesting that approximately 46% of current variations in access levels are influenced by past shocks occurring four quarters earlier. Historical data from 2000 to 2024 reveal very low adoption rates of clean cooking fuels, starting below 1% and only reaching about 30.8% by 2024. The ARIMA (1,2,4) model projects a continued but modest upward trend through 2050, with substantial uncertainty surrounding the pace of growth. The study contributes to the expanding discourse on energy justice in resource-rich but energy-poor economies. It affirms that sustainable development in Nigeria depends not only on exploiting energy resources, but on dismantling the structural barriers that hinder equitable access to their benefits. Given the findings, we recommend that policymakers prioritise targeted investments in clean cooking infrastructure, expand public awareness campaigns on the health and environmental benefits of clean fuels, and strengthen regulatory frameworks to encourage private sector participation in clean energy delivery.