Developing risk prediction models for type 2 diabetes and assessing the role of circulating metabolic biomarkers in five independent Finnish cohorts with over 22,000 individuals

The baseline model with clinical variables achieved a very good discrimination in predicting T2D. Models with metabolic variables were not able to meaningfully improve on it, as the high level set by the baseline left little room for improvement. The constructed models generalize to new independent data quite well in terms of discrimination, but relatively poorly in terms of calibration.