Current and future global distribution of the peach twig borer, <i>Anarsia lineatella</i> Zeller (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae)

Abstract Biological invasions and climate change are key drivers of biodiversity redistribution, leading to severe environmental, economic, and public health consequences. This issue is particularly problematic for insect pests, which often expand their distribution via transportation with commodities. The peach twig borer, Anarsia lineatella Zeller, exemplifies an agricultural pest with a primarily restricted distribution that expanded its range to other regions. This study used species distribution modelling to predict the distribution of A. lineatella under current and future climate conditions. The model was developed using the Maxent algorithm, following best practices and recommendations for species distribution modelling. The optimized model exhibited strong statistical performance, effectively identifying suitable areas for the species (TSS = 0.76, AUC = 0.91; CBI = 0.89). It predicted suitable areas beyond the pest's current distribution, encompassing countries in the Neotropical region, northern and sub‐Saharan Africa, northeastern Asia, and southeastern and southwestern Australia. Under climate change scenarios, the model projected an expansion of A. lineatella 's range, especially under the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP5‐8.5) for 2041 to 2060. In this scenario, the model estimated an increase of up to 14% in areas classified as optimal and 52% in areas with a high probability of occurrence, with the expansion primarily concentrated in eastern Europe. The results provide valuable insights into the potential distribution of A. lineatella , aiding in the prioritisation of regions for monitoring and adopting preventive measures against this pest.