Potential effects of future climate change on global <i>Taxus</i> distributions and diversity

Abstract Taxus has unique survival adaptability and climate sensitivity, reflecting the evolutionary characteristics of gymnosperms. It is also an indicator species threatened by climate change, with the most representative endangered species. Given that it is the only plant in nature that can naturally synthesize Taxol, it has attracted wide attention. However, the global distribution pattern of Taxus and its climate response mechanisms remain unclear. Moreover, the quantitative absence of key driving factors severely restricts the precise formulation of conservation strategies. Here, we provide the first comprehensive climate impact assessment for Taxus on a global scale. Patterns and driving mechanisms of species richness distributions were predicted using stacked species distribution models. Results showed high species richness regions concentrated in southern Asia and central Europe, and a clear unimodal pattern with a latitudinal gradient (20°–60° N). Precipitation of the driest quarter (&amp;gt;14 mm) was a critical determinant of survival, while the aridity index indicated preferences for sub-humid to humid zones. The minimum temperature of the coldest month (&amp;gt; −15 °C) was a dominant factor accelerating range shifts; under the SSP5-8.5, migration distance (+70 km) and range loss (−58.2%) increased significantly. Species richness loss hotspots included southern North America, eastern/southwestern Europe and Southeast Asia, with Taxus baccata, Taxus cuspidata and Taxus brevifolia facing the highest extinction risk. At the same time, wildfires and overgrazing will further exacerbate the loss of area in species richness hotspots, especially for T. cuspidata and Taxus wallichiana. Targeted conservation management of endangered species is urgently needed to maintain sustainable biodiversity development.