Assessing Farmers’ Welfare in Bengkulu Province through Farmers’ Term of Trade and Zakat-Based Social Group Classification

A. This study aims to assess the welfare of farmers in Bengkulu Province by employing farmers' term of trade and zakat-based social group classifications.A mixed-method approach is adopted, combining quantitative analysis using the ARIMA Box-Jenkins forecasting model on farmers' term of trade time series data from January 2021 to December 2023, and qualitative analysis based on zakat classification categories such as the wealthy (muzakki), the middle-income group, and the underprivileged (mustahik).The quantitative results show that the ARIMA (1,0,0) model is the most suitable for forecasting farmers' term of trade, with projected values for year 2024 ranging from 138.57 to 142.68.These projections suggest that farmers' purchasing power remains stable and falls within the surplus category.However, the qualitative results reveal that most farmers in Bengkulu Province are still classified as mustahik, signifying persistent welfare disparities and dependence on zakat.These findings highlight the critical need to strengthen the role of productive zakat and foster cross-sector collaboration as tools for empowering the agricultural economy.This study recommends that agricultural development policies should incorporate not only economic indicators but also socio-religious dimensions to achieve sustainable improvements in farmers' welfare.